Trump looks to inflict economic pain on Iran

Welcome to The Hill's Defense & NatSec newsletter{beacon} Defense &National Security Defense &National Security The Big Story Trump looks to inflict economic pain on Iran President Trump is turning his focus on economic warfare, leaning on crippling sanctions and a U.S. naval blockade to force Iranians to the table in peace talks. © Jacquelyn Martin, Associated PressRegional experts who spoke with The Hill said the Trump administration might not get what it wants out of the efforts, some panning the strategy, while others argued it is the only hand Washington has left to play.

William Wechsler, the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Combating Terrorism, said the U.S. going back to war with Iran would have “significant risks,” but also doing any deal along the lines of the memorandum of understanding that the two sides signed in June would be a “disaster.” “The only option that the president has now is to do the option that he’s done, which is just to try to buy time on this,” Wechsler said Wednesday.

Wechsler, who is now a senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, said despite the U.S. naval blockade, Iranians are asserting their control over the Strait of Hormuz to eventually start charging tolls to generate revenue, believing they can outlast the U.S. since they are fundamentally not a democracy and Trump is under more pressure because of upcoming elections. Still, the White House believes that Iran’s economy is severely damaged with rising inflation, reduced energy revenues, an uptick in poverty and limited access to foreign currencies.

The naval blockade has produced results. During its first iteration, which lasted from April 13 to June 18, the U.S. blockade has cost Iran around $4.8 billion in oil revenue, a Pentagon assessment found, The Hill reported in May. Wechsler said his concern about the administration’s strategy is that Trump succeeds if he can win domestic battles with the “art of persuasion,” while the regime led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has another tool in the tool shed apart from “persuasion.”

“They have guns that they can use against their people, and typically, people who have guns and are willing to use them against their people, it takes a longer time for them to lose,” he said. Read the full report at thehill.com. Welcome to The Hill’s Defense & National Security newsletter, I’m Ellen Mitchell — your guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. Did someone forward you this newsletter?

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