Houthi offensive on Bab el-Mandeb Strait threatens new Red Sea shipping crisis

A battle for control of Yemen’s coastal plains overlooking the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, launched on Friday by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, is rapidly intensifying into an all-out war with Saudi-backed government forces.
A wave of Houthi missile and drone strikes launched against four cities in southern Saudi Arabia early on Tuesday, injuring 73 civilians, may prove to be the tipping point in the conflict, analysts say.
Coinciding with an escalating battle of attrition between the United States and Iran for control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthi air strikes are widely viewed as a precursor to a parallel conflict with Saudi Arabia for dominance over the Red Sea.
As with Hormuz, the intense fighting in Yemen’s Taiz and Hodeidah governorates is expected to strangle maritime traffic using the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Indian Ocean to Europe via the Suez Canal.
A Houthi embargo imposed in July on Saudi shipping transiting the strait has forced the kingdom to divert oil exports from Red Sea ports to Asia around Africa, adding thousands of kilometres and associated costs to tanker voyages.
“We are looking at both the return of Houthi cross-border attacks into Saudi Arabia and the resumption of the group’s efforts to bring a virtual halt to Red Sea shipping,” said Adam Baron, a veteran Yemen analyst and fellow with the future security programme at the Washington-based think tank New America.
The economic and political fallout of this escalation risked “further shaking the wider region”, particularly as it effectively underlined the potential capacity of the Iran-led axis of resistance to “squeeze US-aligned Gulf states from both sides of the Arabian Peninsula”, Baron said.

Analysts said it was unclear how much of a role Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps played in the Houthi push to decisively change the balance of power in Yemen following four years of relative peace.
According to Baron, the escalation instead underlined the extent to which it remained in the Houthis’ interests – both as an autonomous force and as part of the axis of resistance – to “maintain a demonstrable capacity to shut down Bab el-Mandeb”.
Particularly in light of the situation in Hormuz, “this remains a key point of leverage for Iran’s wider regional network”, he said.
However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed no such doubts about Tehran’s involvement.
“The Houthis, in many ways, are agents and proxies of the Iranians,” Rubio told reporters in Washington on Tuesday. “I think behind some of this is clearly the Iranian hand.”
Speaking in Moscow on Tuesday, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Farhan bin Faisal refrained from directly pointing fingers at the Islamic Republic, but warned the Houthi militia that it had embarked on a course of action whose consequences “it will not be able to handle”.
While Farhan reiterated the kingdom’s openness to a negotiated political settlement in Yemen, he stressed that Saudi Arabia “will not hesitate to defend ourselves and we will not hesitate to protect our interests”.
The strident tone of his remarks led many Saudi analysts to conclude that Riyadh was preparing to ditch its long-standing policy of containment in Yemen in favour of establishing military deterrence against Houthi aggression.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political commentator reputedly close to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, said he expected the kingdom to “respond aggressively and continue its strong support of the Yemeni government forces”.
Analysts note that the competing factions making up the internationally recognised government forces were currently at their strongest since Yemen’s civil war erupted in 2014.
A Saudi-led coalition intervened the following year after Houthi rebels seized swathes of northern and western Yemen, with the conflict ending in stalemate in 2022.
The UN-sponsored political road map agreed upon at the time failed to produce the desired settlement, despite lengthy mediation efforts by neighbouring Oman, because of incessant jockeying for position between the Houthis and rival elements within the Yemeni government camp.
Southern separatists backed by the United Arab Emirates went on the offensive in southern and eastern Yemen late last year, leading to the UAE’s expulsion from the country in December – and an unprecedented rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
Since then, Riyadh has worked to consolidate anti-Houthi groups under a unified command. This force benefits from Saudi intelligence, better weaponry and advanced drones that have proven especially effective in repelling recent rebel ground assaults.
Pro-government forces have responded to the Houthi offensive in Taiz and Hodeidah by counter-attacking at strategic points across multiple fronts – a tactic aimed at drawing Houthi forces away from the Red Sea coast.
On the other hand, the Houthi offensive may be intended to prevent operations against Houthi-controlled areas along the western coast, according to Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based non-profit organisation focused on conflict prevention and resolution.

Amid widespread rumours of a government offensive to retake the key Red Sea port of Hodeidah, Houthi operations could pull government forces away from their coastal positions and reinforce Houthi defences in the mountains overlooking the western coast.
In an advisory published by the International Crisis Group on Tuesday, Nagi said the Houthis appeared intent on seizing high ground on the western coastal plain and areas near Mokha port and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This would expand their control over terrain overlooking the coast, putting them in a stronger position to target transiting shipping.
By staging this ground assault alongside cross-border attacks against Saudi Arabia and maritime operations against Saudi-linked shipping, the Houthis were “seeking to demonstrate the ability to operate simultaneously across multiple fronts”, Nagi said.
They also hoped to project an image of strength after suffering losses to government-aligned forces using advanced drones in recent weeks.
Nagi warned the scale of reinforcements in weapons and manpower on both sides suggested the current battle “may well morph into a prolonged confrontation”.
Continued escalation could open additional fronts. In particular, the Yemeni government, with Saudi support, “may see an advantage in expanding military operations” to force the Houthis to disperse their forces and stretch their capabilities, rather than allowing them to concentrate their resources on the Taiz and western coastal fronts.
With both sides eyeing momentous territorial gains, Baron described the line between brinkmanship and aiming to make decisive gains as “quite thin”.
Both the Houthis and their adversaries now “broadly assess that a return to fighting is in their interest”, he said.