Brics’ ‘stiffest test’: can India, China rally bloc to resolve Strait of Hormuz crisis?

A summit next month by the Brics grouping of nations has raised hopes that major players India and China will align to rally member states to resolve the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with the United States making little headway.
Analysts say the forum from September 12 to 13 amid the global energy crisis wrought by the Middle East conflict could see parallel diplomacy, given the 11-member grouping’s economic clout accounts for about 40 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product.
“I see a convergence of interests between India and China, though not necessarily a convergence in geopolitical positions,” said Uday Chandra, a political-science professor at India’s Ashoka University.
“Both countries would like the Iran and Ukraine wars contained, energy supplies secured, the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened, and the global economy stabilised in the medium run.”
“But China is closer to Russia and Iran than India is. India, in turn, has vital strategic partnerships with the US, Europe, Israel, the UAE and Ukraine,” Chandra said. “Paradoxically, these differences may make India-China cooperation more worthwhile.”
Brazil, seen as a major voice and bridge for the Global South, could help smooth out internal divides within Brics, he added.
The bloc, originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

The Brics foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi in May concluded without a joint statement because of differing views among members regarding the Middle East conflict.
Deep divisions surfaced between newer members Iran and the UAE over the regional conflict. Iranian officials pushed the bloc to explicitly condemn US and Israeli actions, while other member states objected to the language.
“If Delhi and Beijing agree on certain basic principles for de-escalation, they may be able to bring very different parties towards them. Strategic cooperation and economic competition may be perfectly compatible in the medium to long run,” Chandra said.
China and India have cautiously improved ties in recent months, resuming direct flights last October after a five-year suspension and restarting cross-border trade through the Lipulekh Pass in the Himalayas earlier this month.
A military stand-off along their disputed border remains a point of strain, though both nations have moved towards a diplomatic thaw.
“There could be some convergence albeit limited on moving ahead with the diplomatic and dialogue process [at the Brics summit], and perhaps even proposing a definitive road map towards a lasting ceasefire [between US and Iran, and Ukraine and Russia] to end the conflicts,” said Srikumar Menon, a former Indian diplomat.
“Both India and China are unlikely to get involved or position themselves deeply in the process. In fact the two may rather focus on seeking support for multipolarity, leveraging the Global South card and finding ways to not give in to sanctions imposed by the West.”

Western nations – led primarily by the US – have actively imposed punitive secondary sanctions and tariff threats against third-country companies, financial institutions and individuals to discourage them from trading with Russia and Iran.
The US Senate recently passed legislation that could once again see tariffs of up to 100 per cent levied on countries – including India and China – that continue to buy Russian oil.
The convergence of common economic interests in helping resolve geopolitical conflicts such as the Strait of Hormuz disruption “may even goad both sides [India and China] to act with more caution and care than has been in the past decade”, Chandra said.
“Whether it leads to durable peace around geopolitical focal points remains to be seen,” he added. “Hormuz is probably where Brics faces its stiffest test. Iran may view restrictions on American shipping as legitimate strategic leverage, but India, China and the Gulf states need the waterway to function normally.”
Iran and Oman have progressed towards reaching a deal on Hormuz, which carried a fifth of the world’s oil before the conflict. Tehran has said reopening the waterway would be subject to Washington meeting conditions, including American reparations for attacks on Iran.
Brics could focus on a narrower objective such as uninterrupted commercial shipping, no attacks on merchant vessels, and a negotiated mechanism for de-escalation, Chandra said. “It should support, not supplant, Oman-led negotiations.”

Doubts over US role
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that Iran and the US were not engaged in talks and Tehran would not start them as long as Washington breached an interim agreement signed in June.
Meanwhile, in a further threat to supply, the Iran-aligned Houthis said they had hit Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery on Sunday.
The attack came two days after Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan in response to growing regional instability that has undermined confidence among nations about Washington’s ability to secure peace and stability.
Srinivaasan Balakrishnan, director of strategic engagements and partnerships at the Delhi-based think tank Indic Researchers Forum, said Brics could provide “precisely the kind of inclusive, multipolar platform that can offer a credible alternative to US-centric approaches in resolving conflicts”.
The US being a “direct party” to the conflict in the Middle East “limits Washington’s ability to act as a neutral broker”, but Brics brought together players with “shared stakes in energy security, maritime commerce and a less zero-sum global order”, Balakrishnan said.
“It is not a military alliance or an anti-Western bloc, it is a forum where differences can be managed without forcing alignment.”