Rajasthan urban body polls see BJP's seats rise by 5%, Congress's fall by 5%

The BJP, which is in power in Rajasthan, has registered a 5 percentage point increase in the number of seats in the urban local body polls, voting for which was held in two phases last week. The Congress has seen a 5 percentage point drop in its number of seats in comparison to the last election cycle. What makes the comparison a bit complicated this time is the delimitation process that led to a 37% increase in the number of seats in the municipal bodies in Rajasthan since the last election cycle, held between 2019 and 2021.

Since the last cycle of urban local body polls, Rajasthan has added 2,770 wards, which is a 37% increase. But the BJP's gains have been even sharper. The tally of wards it won has jumped by 57%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the 40.7% it won last.The latest data shows the BJP with 4,179 wards and the Congress 3,613. Several parties like the AAP, CPI (M) and Hanuman Beniwal-led RLP making good gains.This was a key test for the BJP given that the agitation against the Centre's UGC Equity Regulations saw participation from groups from Rajasthan and the Cockroach Janta Party's (CJP's) activism in the state.

Also, a big chunk of the voters were below the age of 40. The results for the urban local bodies (ULBs) were declared on September 14. The elections covered 309 municipalities across three main tiers — Municipal Corporations (Nagar Nigam), Municipal Councils (Nagar Parishad), and Municipal BoardsMunicipalities (Nagar PalikaNagar Panchayat). While a municipal corporation governs a larger city, a municipality or municipal council administers a town.The previous ULB elections were held in four phases between 2019 and 2021, with elections to different urban local bodies taking place at different points.

The voting for the latest election was held on September 9 and 11. The increase in the number of seats can be used to assess how the two principal parties — the Congress, and the BJP — have performed in Rajasthan's urban politics. Interestingly, at the Assembly level, Rajasthan has traditionally been a swing state.The latest data shows the BJP with 4,179 wards, compared with 3,613 for the Congress. Independents have won 2,273 wards.

The BJP, therefore, accounts for 40.8% of the 10,244 wards, while the Congress accounts for 35.3% and Independents for 22.2%. The BJP's lead over the Congress stands at 566 wards.This analysis was filed at 7 pm on September 14, when results for 10 of the 10,244 wards were yet to be declared. The figures and percentages, therefore, reflect the results available at the time of filing and may change marginally once all results are in.

A LOOK AT THE RAW NUMBERS FROM RAJASTHAN LOCAL BODY POLLSThe consolidated figures from the previous urban local body (ULB) cycle, covering the elections held between 2019 and 2021, put the Congress at about 3,042 wards, the BJP at about 2,666 and Independents at about 1,672. Comparing those figures with the latest results shows a substantially larger increase for the BJP.The BJP's tally has risen from about 2,666 wards to 4,179 wards, an increase of 56.8%.

The Congress has gone from about 3,042 wards to 3,613, an increase of 18.7%. Independents have risen from about 1,672 wards to 2,273, an increase of 35.9%. The smaller parties have also seen significant changes in their raw tallies.The Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP), led by Nagaur Lok Sabha MP Hanuman Beniwal, has risen from about 14 wards to 63, an increase of 350%. The rise is notable for the RLP, which is a regional party with a strong presence in Rajasthan's Jat-dominated areas, particularly in western Rajasthan, where Beniwal has built much of his political base.The RLP was part of the INDIA bloc in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when Beniwal retained the Nagaur seat as the alliance's candidate.CPI(M) has risen from about eight wards to 38, an increase of 375%.

The BSP has fallen from 24 wards to 19, a decline of 20.8%. These large percentage increases, however, do not account for the overall 37% increase in the total number of wards.RAW NUMBERS DON'T TELL THE WHOLE STORYThe more meaningful comparison is what happened to each party's share of the total ward pool, because the number of wards itself has increased by 37.1%. In the previous cycle, the Congress's roughly 3,042 wards represented about 40.7% of the approximately 7,474 wards.

The BJP's roughly 2,666 wards represented 35.7%, while Independents accounted for 22.4%. In the latest 10,244-ward election, the BJP's share has risen to 40.8%, while the Congress's has fallen to 35.3%. The Independent share is broadly unchanged at 22.2%. In percentage-point terms, therefore, the BJP has gained about 5.1 percentage points of the total ward share.The Congress has lost about 5.4 percentage points.The Independents' share has slipped only marginally, by about 0.2 percentage points.This is important because the BJP's gain cannot simply be explained by Rajasthan having more wards.

The party has increased its representation at a substantially faster rate than the overall ward expansion.The BJP's tally is up 56.8%, against a 37.1% increase in the total number of wards.The Congress, by comparison, has increased its raw tally by only 18.7%, well below the expansion in the ward pool. That is why its overall share has declined even though the party has more wards in absolute terms than it did in the previous cycle.WHAT DOES THE BJP GOVERNMENT'S ROLE IN RAJASTHAN TELL US?

The political context is significant here. Rajasthan currently has a BJP government, led by Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma, and the BJP has now emerged as the largest party in the state's urban local bodies in terms of the number of wards it has won.Ruling parties can have an advantage in local elections through organisational networks, access to the machinery of government, greater political visibility and the ability to campaign around state-level governance and development.The latest numbers are therefore broadly consistent with the pattern seen across much of India, where the party in power at the state level generally enjoys an advantage in both urban and rural polls.Municipal elections are shaped by factors that can be very different from Assembly elections.

Candidate selection, ward-level organisation, local issues, delimitation, reservation, factional politics and the strength of Independents can all determine outcomes.The Congress had the larger share of wards in the previous consolidated ULB cycle. In the latest election, that position has effectively reversed. But it has still held on to a number of wards, indicating that its grassroots organisation in the state is intact.So, while the data cannot establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship between being the ruling party and winning more municipal wards, it does show that the BJP has strengthened its position in Rajasthan's expanded urban electoral landscape, while the Congress's share has fallen substantially.

One has to remember that the BJP's loyal voters are supposed to be those in urban areas, which made this a key test against the backdrop of the uproar over the UGC Equity Regulations and the Cockroach Janta Party's activism.- EndsPublished By: Anand SinghPublished On: Sep 14, 2026 22:20 IST