Hormuz choked, Red Sea threatened: How will oil get through?

Dubai: For months, the Strait of Hormuz has been the central pressure point in the Iran war. Now another of the world’s most important shipping corridors is coming under threat — and that could make getting Middle East oil to global markets even harder.

Iran’s restrictions on Hormuz had already forced Saudi Arabia and other producers to rely more heavily on alternative routes, particularly towards the Red Sea.

But the advance of Iran-backed Houthi militants along Yemen’s western coast has put renewed pressure on Bab Al Mandab, the narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.

Why Iran-backed Houthi militants are pushing towards Bab Al Mandab as Hormuz disruption raises stakes

The Houthis captured the strategic port city of Mocha and, according to Yemeni government sources cited by CNN, also seized Perim Island, which sits directly in the Bab Al Mandab Strait.

The developments potentially give the group greater ability to threaten shipping through a route that has become increasingly important since the Iran war began.

The result is an increasingly difficult question for energy markets: If Hormuz remains severely constrained and the Red Sea route becomes more dangerous, how will the region’s oil get through?

Hormuz remains severely constrained

Before the war, around 130 vessels a day passed through the Strait of Hormuz. In September, the average has fallen to just 19 ships a day, according to ship-tracking data cited by The New York Times.

On Thursday, Kpler recorded only nine ships passing through the strait.

The US Navy has managed to keep some traffic moving through waters close to Oman, away from the Iranian coast, but the operation has become increasingly dangerous.

Great Hormuz escape: 80% of traffic goes ‘dark’ as US flips Iran’s playbook

At least 23 vessels were hit in waters near Oman during July and August, while at least 22 sailors have been killed in the Middle East since the war began at the end of February.

Even shipowners accustomed to operating in high-risk regions are becoming reluctant to enter the area as attacks intensify.

The impact is already visible in export figures. Crude exports from Gulf countries excluding Iran were about two-thirds of their prewar level in August, according to Windward analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann.

Red Sea became the alternative

Saudi Arabia has traditionally had an important advantage over some other Gulf producers: It can move crude westwards across the kingdom through its East-West Pipeline and export it from Red Sea terminals, bypassing Hormuz.

That option became more important after Iran restricted access through Hormuz following the first US and Israeli strikes on February 28.

From there, vessels can travel south through Bab Al Mandab towards Asia or north towards the Suez Canal and Mediterranean.

How can the oil get out?

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Strait of Hormuz: The traditional route for Gulf energy exports. Traffic has fallen from about 130 vessels a day before the war to an average of 19 in September.

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Saudi East-West Pipeline: Carries oil across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea, bypassing Hormuz. Saudi authorities said the pipeline was targeted multiple times and shut as a precaution.

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Bab Al Mandab : Connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and routes towards Asia. Houthi gains at Mocha and Perim have increased concerns over shipping through the chokepoint.

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Suez-Mediterranean route : Provides another way for Saudi exports to leave the Red Sea, but sending oil this way to Asian customers is longer and more expensive.

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The emerging problem: Hormuz is severely constrained, Bab al-Mandab faces a growing Houthi threat, and alternative routes can add cost and time — increasing pressure on global energy supplies.

But that route is now under growing pressure.

Iran deploys hundreds of IRGC officers to Yemen to target Bab al-Mandab Strait

The Houthis’ capture of Mocha and Perim gives the Iran-backed group a stronger position around Bab Al Mandab.

In the past week, only two Saudi cargoes passed through Bab Al Mandab out of the Red Sea, according to Kpler.

Complicating matters further, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry said its East-West Pipeline had been targeted multiple times and was shut as a precautionary measure.

A handout picture released by the Marine Nationale (French Navy) on May 6, 2026 shows the French Navy's Carrier Strike Group that includes the flagship aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (unseen) and its escort transiting the Suez Canal en route to the southern Red Sea to pre‑position for a possible mission to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

There is another way — but it costs more

Saudi Arabia still has another option.

Oil reaching the Red Sea can be sent north towards the Suez Canal and Mediterranean rather than south through Bab Al Mandab.

But for cargoes destined for Asia — home to many of Saudi Arabia’s biggest customers — that means a substantially longer and more expensive journey.

In effect, the geography that once gave Saudi Arabia an important alternative to Hormuz is becoming more complicated at both ends.

An effective Houthi blockade of Bab Al Mandab could also force Washington to devote additional military resources to protecting Red Sea shipping at a time when US forces are already working to keep vessels moving through Hormuz.

CNN reported that such an intervention could weaken Washington’s ability to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil market feels the pressure

Energy markets are already reflecting the growing risks.

Oil briefly climbed above $108 a barrel on Friday following escalating attacks by the Houthis — roughly 50 per cent above prewar levels.

The effects are spreading beyond crude markets. Average US gasoline prices have risen above $4 a gallon, while diesel — vital for trucking, farming and industry — has climbed above $6 a gallon.

The danger is not that Middle East oil suddenly has no route to world markets.

Rather, the routes that remain are becoming more dangerous, more expensive or more dependent on military protection.

And that means a conflict centred for months on one of the world’s great energy chokepoints may now be putting pressure on a second.