Saudi pipeline strike forces Baghdad to move against Iran-backed militias

Iraq has dismissed senior security officials in the
southern province of Maysan following a drone attack on Saudi
Arabia's East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, increasing pressure on
Baghdad to curb Iran-backed militias operating from its
territory.

Saudi Arabia announced on September 11 that it had temporarily
shut the pipeline after multiple drone attacks the previous day in
Riyadh and Medina provinces. The East-West pipeline can transport
up to 5 million barrels of crude a day from Saudi Arabia's eastern
oil fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea, providing the kingdom with a
crucial alternative to exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

The attacks pushed Brent crude to around $110 a barrel before
prices fell to about $105 later on September 11. The benchmark
subsequently settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since
May.

Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy described the pipeline
shutdown as a precautionary measure. Satellite imagery, however,
showed fires at pumping stations along the route.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry said the attacks were carried out by
"several drones launched from Iraq", causing injuries and damage.
Riyadh said it had decided not to retaliate after Iraqi Prime
Minister Ali al Zaidi requested time for his government to take
measures against attacks originating from Iraqi territory.

"The Kingdom has chosen not to respond at this stage and to
support the efforts of the Iraqi government," the Saudi ministry
said.

Zaidi condemned the attack and ordered an investigation into
security failures in Maysan province, which borders Iran. He
dismissed the commander of the Maysan Operations Command, which
oversees military security in the province, and later ordered the
dismissal of the provincial police chief and the transfer of other
security officials pending the investigation.

"His Excellency's directives come in light of the recent
security breaches that occurred in the province," Sabah al Numan,
spokesman for the commander in chief of Iraq's armed forces, said
on September 12.

The incident comes amid growing tensions between Baghdad and
Iran-backed armed groups operating in Iraq.

In late July, Iraqi militias launched drone attacks against
Saudi energy facilities, prompting Saudi and US forces to carry out
airstrikes against militia positions in Iraq on July 28. The
strikes reportedly killed a Houthi commander as well as Iranian
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps advisers.

The July attacks came shortly after Yemen's Houthi movement
announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia on July 20. The
Houthis have since carried out further attacks against Saudi energy
infrastructure in the country's south and along its western
coast.

Iraqi militias and the Houthis have also reportedly deepened
operational cooperation. The Houthis were reported to have assisted
Iraqi militias in planning and carrying out the July attacks on
Saudi targets.

The latest incident comes at a particularly sensitive moment for
Zaidi's government. The Iraqi prime minister has given Iran-backed
armed groups until September 30 to disarm, but several powerful
militias have rejected the demand or imposed conditions that could
make disarmament difficult.

The Saudi pipeline attack therefore presents Baghdad with a
difficult test. Riyadh has so far refrained from responding
militarily, giving the Iraqi government an opportunity to
demonstrate that it can prevent attacks on Saudi territory from
being launched from Iraq.

At the same time, the incident underscores the vulnerability of
Saudi Arabia's alternative oil-export routes. With the East-West
pipeline designed to reduce the kingdom's dependence on the Strait
of Hormuz, attacks against the route could have implications well
beyond Saudi Arabia, particularly if disruptions to Gulf energy
infrastructure become more frequent.

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