Russian invasion of NATO country 'highly unlikely' but 'cannot be ruled out': Danish intelligence
Defence Intelligence Service says it sees no indications of impending invasion, but warns of growing risk of limited attacks
A Russian invasion of a NATO country remains “highly unlikely” but “cannot be ruled out,” Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) said in a new threat assessment Thursday.
“The DDIS still sees no indications that Russia will launch an outright invasion of one or several NATO countries,” the agency said.
“Even if Russia decides to invade a NATO country, it would likely take Russia at least six months to prepare and build up the necessary forces. Although a Russian invasion is highly unlikely, it cannot be ruled out.”
The assessment distinguished an invasion from a smaller military operation, warning of a “low but growing risk” of a limited Russian attack against NATO countries bordering Russia. Such an attack could occur in the coming months even if the war in Ukraine continues, it said.
The agency outlined several possible forms of a limited attack: a strike on infrastructure used to support Ukraine, a “false flag” operation involving Ukrainian-made drones, or a small deployment of troops without national insignia.
“There is a risk that Russia assesses that the NATO countries will not respond collectively, especially if Russia assesses that the United States cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a potential war against Russia.”
The agency also expects Russia to step up its hybrid campaign against NATO and Western countries. It said future operations could include destructive cyberattacks that disrupt essential services and sabotage, posing a risk of casualties.
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